Simulation of proposed AV system in UK applied to 2010 election results First-choice votes polled by candidate who won under AV (percentage of total constituency votes) Second- or third-choice votes from those initially choosing other parties, re-assigned under AV Total votes picked up by the candidate winning under AV Votes from those whose first choice was not the winning candidate and whose second- or third-choice vote was discarded under AV
Welsh Winning Candidate       (Elected as MP) Winning Party
Constituencies / Seats in UK Parliament
From:                                To:
Aberavon AV changes underlined
Ogmore     Number % Number % Number % Number %
Aberavon Francis, Hywel Labour 16,073 51.9% 0 0.0% 16,073 51.9% 14,885 48.1%
Aberconwy Bebb, Guto Conservative 10,734 35.8% 1,138 3.8% 11,872 39.6% 18,094 60.4%
Alyn and Deeside Tami, Mark Labour 15,804 39.6% 2,847 7.1% 18,651 46.7% 21,272 53.3%
Arfon Williams, Hywel Plaid Cymru 9,383 36.0% 1,592 6.1% 10,975 42.1% 15,103 57.9%
Blaenau Gwent Smith, Nick Labour 16,974 52.4% 0 0.0% 16,974 52.4% 15,421 47.6%
Brecon and Radnorshire Williams, Roger Lib-Dem 17,929 46.2% 1,695 4.4% 19,624 50.5% 19,221 49.5%
Bridgend Moon, Madeleine Labour 13,931 36.3% 3,382 8.8% 17,313 45.1% 21,034 54.9%
Caerphilly David, Wayne Labour 17,377 44.6% 1,711 4.4% 19,088 49.0% 19,904 51.0%
Cardiff Central Willott, Jenny Lib-Dem 14,976 41.4% 2,989 8.3% 17,965 49.7% 18,186 50.3%
Cardiff North Morgan, Julie Labour 17,666 37.1% 3,317 7.0% 20,983 44.1% 26,647 55.9%
Cardiff South and Penarth Michael, Alun Labour Co-op 17,263 38.9% 4,131 9.3% 21,394 48.2% 22,976 51.8%
Cardiff West Brennan, Kevin Labour 16,893 41.2% 3,467 8.5% 20,360 49.7% 20,597 50.3%
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Edwards, Jonathan Plaid Cymru 13,546 35.6% 2,418 6.4% 15,964 42.0% 22,047 58.0%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Hart, Simon Conservative 16,649 41.1% 1,132 2.8% 17,781 43.9% 22,726 56.1%
Ceredigion Williams, Mark Lib-Dem 19,139 50.0% 0 0.0% 19,139 50.0% 19,119 50.0%
Clwyd South Jones, Susan Elan Labour 13,311 38.4% 3,019 8.7% 16,330 47.1% 18,351 52.9%
Clwyd West Jones, David Conservative 15,833 41.5% 1,209 3.2% 17,042 44.7% 21,069 55.3%
Cynon Valley Clwyd, Ann Labour 15,681 52.5% 0 0.0% 15,681 52.5% 14,195 47.5%
Delyn Hanson, David Labour 15,083 40.8% 2,429 6.6% 17,512 47.4% 19,472 52.6%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Llwyd, Elfyn Plaid Cymru 12,814 44.3% 1,358 4.7% 14,172 49.0% 14,734 51.0%
Gower Caton, Martin Labour 16,016 38.4% 3,359 8.1% 19,375 46.5% 22,296 53.5%
Islwyn Evans, Christopher Labour Co-op 17,069 49.2% 167 0.5% 17,236 49.7% 17,454 50.3%
Llanelli Griffith, Nia Labour 15,916 42.5% 1,396 3.7% 17,312 46.2% 20,149 53.8%
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Havard, Dai Labour 14,007 43.7% 1,452 4.5% 15,459 48.2% 16,617 51.8%
Monmouth Davies, David Conservative 22,466 48.3% 398 0.9% 22,864 49.1% 23,655 50.9%
Montgomeryshire Davies, Glyn Conservative 13,976 41.3% 675 2.0% 14,651 43.3% 19,162 56.7%
Neath Hain, Peter Labour 17,172 46.3% 427 1.2% 17,599 47.4% 19,523 52.6%
Newport East Townsend, Ed Lib-Dem 11,094 32.2% 2,850 8.3% 13,944 40.5% 20,504 59.5%
Newport West Flynn, Paul Labour 16,389 41.3% 2,490 6.3% 18,879 47.5% 20,841 52.5%
Ogmore Irranca-Davies, Huw Labour 18,644 53.8% 0 0.0% 18,644 53.8% 16,006 46.2%
Results based on simulation program AVOTER (AV Operational Testing, Evaluation and Research)